Thursday, October 28, 2004

NFL Week 8 Predictions

Doc's immortal words:
The Falcons are 5-1 behind a strong running game (ranked 3rd in the league) and a solid defense. The Chief defense is weak, especially against the run, ranking 23rd. Their offense is founded on the running game as well, but the Falcons have the top ranked defense against the run. The Chiefs just do not stack up well against the surging Falcons.
Um..... I'm speechless.

Onto this week.

Cardinals @ Bills
The Cardinals have picked up their game in recent weeks, winning two of their last three. They have been competitive in every game they've played this year. Their defense has been prolific at causing turnovers. The Bills have rarely been competitive and are prolific at giving turnovers. The Cardinals have not won away from the desert this year, but I will go with the upset. Prediction: Cardinals.

Lions @ Cowboys
Detroit, after losing every road game for 3 years, is undefeated on the road. Dallas has struggled everywhere. Last year's top ranked defense has fallen apart. The offense, despite some good statistics for Testaverde, has not done much either. The Lion injury woes are lessening and their offense is fielding more of its starters, like rookie WR Roy Williams. With a balanced offense and an improving defense, the Lions will add to Parcells' headaches. Prediction: Lions.

Jaguars @ Texans
The Jags are off to a surprising start, leading the AFC South after last week's surprising win over the Colts. Byron Leftwich continued his streak of impressive statistical outings, putting up 300 yards passing and a QB rating of 116. However, as I pointed out last week, he still isn't putting up touchdowns. For all his yards last week, he only threw two touchdowns. The Texans have their own explosive offense, with Carr getting touchdowns through the air and rushing. The difference between the two teams is that Jacksonville has a better defense and a healthier running game. Prediction: Jaguars.

Colts @ Chiefs
The Chief running game awoke last week with a vengeance. Eight rushing touchdowns! Wow. Against an anemic Falcon offense, a rush-heavy offense will get the job done. Against the Colts, who can put up points faster than just about anyone, they will have to get the job down through the air as well, something they have struggled with this year. Prediction: Colts.

Giants @ Vikings
The Vikings have the best offense in the league, a worthy successor to the offenses Kurt Warner used to lead in St. Louis. Today he leads the more human Giant offense, which will struggle to stay close enough for respectability. Prediction: Vikings.

Bengals @ Titans
Have the Bengals turned the corner? Their defense did a good job against a capable Bronco offense on Monday night. The Titans are struggling, especially with McNair hurt. If the Bengals can avoid an emotional letdown after such a big win last week, they should be able to handle Tennessee as well. Prediction: Bengals.

Packers @ Redskins
This game has national and international implications: "In the previous 15 elections, if the Skins have lost their last home game prior to the election, the incumbent party has lost the White House. When they have won, the incumbent has stayed in power." This should be a good matchup, at least in one direction. The Packers possess the second ranked offense in the NFL and they will go up against the top ranked defense of the Redskins. (The other direction has the 27th ranked Washington offense against the 21st ranked Green Bay defense.) With Grady Jackson back in the lineup, the Packer defense should be better against the run than they have been so far when they have had to field an undersized defensive line because Jackson has been out. The run has been the core of the Redskin offense; the passing game has underachieved with Brunell making numerous mistakes. When the Packers can slow the game down and play their game, as they have been able to do the last couple of weeks, they are still an effective team. They struggle when forced out of their run-oriented game plan in shootouts, but the low-rated Redskin passing game will not do that. Prediction: Packers.

Ravens @ Eagles
With Jamal Lewis on suspension, the Ravens will rely on the steady arm of Kyle Boller to lead them to victory. Boller's overpowering 86 yards passing last week was enough to get Baltimore past Buffalo. But the undefeated Eagles are a tad bit better than the Bills. While the Raven defense will do its thing and slow the Eagle offense, it won't be anywhere near enough. Prediction: Eagles.

Falcons @ Broncos
With a solid run defense, the Falcons should....what am I saying? A week after getting mauled by Priest Holmes and Derrick Blaylock, the Falcon defense must face the rising star Reuben Droughns. A struggling Michael Vick must face a strong Bronco defense. Prediction: Broncos.

Panthers @ Seahawks
Before this season, I would have predicted this to be one of the games of the season. Now, the Panthers are doing little, devastated by injuries to key personnel. The Seahawks have struggled with three straight losses. The collapse against the Rams has left them in a daze. But against a weaker opponent, they should get back on track. Prediction: Seahawks.

Patriots @ Steelers
Many have been predicting this is the week the Pats finally fall. This could be the toughest game the Patriots will face this year. What sets New England apart from the rest of the league is pre-game preparation. No team comes into a game better prepared for the opposition than New England. Their coaching staff breaks down film, reads tendencies, strengths, and weaknesses, and comes up with a game plan to exploit the weaknesses and avoid the strengths. The key to beating New England is to morph your game into something completely unexpected. This is why the unheralded Panthers put such a scare into New England in the Super Bowl. The were completely unprepared for a pass-heavy attack from Jake Delhomme. Crennel and the defense were forced to improvise a game plan, and a defense that manhandled the pass offense of Peyton Manning's Colts got beat play after play. The Steelers this week field a highly regarded rookie quarterback in only his fifth start. The Patriots will not have too much in the way of film to break down, so the defense will not have its normal preparation level, which makes it a tough game. The Steeler defense, while not the Steel Curtain or the dominant unit of the mid-90's which was almost as good as the Steel Curtain, is playing well under prodigal coordinator Dick LeBeau. The Steeler running game is looking more and more like a Steeler running game again, after last year's attempt to emulate the Ram passing attack. The Patriot defensive front is vulnerable to the run. But the Patriot offense will adapt to whatever the opposing defense gives them and they will move the ball. As successful as Big Ben has been so far this season, he has never faced a defense the likes of New England with its confusing fronts and disguised blitzes. That defense confuses Peyton Manning. Ben won't know what hit him. Prediction: Patriots.

Raiders @ Chargers
The Chargers are perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2004 season. No one, including me, expected anything out of them except another fruitful run at a top pick in the draft. Instead, the Chargers are in second place in the division, just a game back of Denver. Of course, the team has usually started fast under Schottenheimer before collapsing. (Last year, they just got straight to the collapse.) The Raiders are not doing much of anything. Prediction: Chargers.

49ers @ Bears
With Rex Grossman out, the Bears are so bad they even make the 49ers look good. Prediction: 49ers.

Dolphins @ Jets
Miami finally won a game. Let's pat them on the back and get back to the real football world. Prediction: Jets.

Last Week: 7-7
Season: 58-44

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